Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Washington's New Launch Code

Call it a lack of self awareness, too much talk of American decline, or the urgency to respond to the crisis in Ukraine during a twenty four hour news cycle.  But the expected White House responses - stern speeches, targeted financial sanctions, diplomatic snubbing and cessation of military ties - seem typical of an America (rightly) unwilling to discuss a war, but unsure of what else to do.

Incredibly, American policymakers seem unsure or unaware of the most important non-lethal weapon at their disposal - the energy weapon.  

For more than three decades, America has been outmaneuvered by its own energy deficit and drawn into a myriad of difficult and bloody conflicts, many of which were about access to energy.  It has seen its defense budgets balloon and thousands of its kids lost to overseas wars.  The energy weapon was effectively used against America by energy rich nations and symbolized American dependence on foreign sources of energy.  Ultimately it gave a voice and power to international players, that without energy of their own, wouldn't have been players at all.

Late last year, while thousands of Ukrainians were braving the bitter winter in Kiev to protest a corrupt government and calling for the right to direct the future of their country, the US reached an important milestone as it passed Saudi Arabia as the world's top oil producing country.  These two paths - a desire for Ukrainian self determination and America's status as a world oil major - should not have been distant ships passing in the night.

Say what you want, good or bad, about America's newfound oil and natural gas resources, their extraction methods, interstate delivery pipelines and the like.  Much will be done in the years to come to more safely extract these resources from the ground.  But the reality is, America will keep drilling and fracking oil and natural gas and it is likely to continue to be a major global energy producer for decades to come.  

In the world of diplomacy and protecting US interests abroad, someone ought to call the White House and tell them they have a winning lottery ticket in between the seats of their car and they forgot to cash it in.

If used prudently and responsibly, America's energy wealth should help better maintain international security.  We see it on a macro level, where Western sanctions banning Iranian oil did little to roil oil markets last year and in part allowed negotiations to proceed on a nuclear deal.  Since the Japanese Tsunami and the devastation to their nuclear power sector, we'll see more American energy exports to Japan, an important US ally.

But the real opportunity lies in America's ability to use its energy resources to support fledgling democracies and advance the spread of freedom and self-governance around the world.  

For decades (as today), cheap oil and gas exports from Russia hung over Europe as the ultimate carrot and stick.  During quiet times, Russia expanded its oil and gas export infrastructure to Europe through a permanent web of interdependence.  But after invading Crimea and with the EU threatening sanctions, gas markets are nervous that an angry Russia will indefinitely cut off supplies to a major regional economy.

America has the opportunity and ability to strategically expand its oil and gas exports so that allies are less dependent on where their gas comes from and more stoic in pursuit of their own interests - whether through meaningful sanctions against Russia from the EU or citizens taking a stand in Ukraine against geopolitical bullying.

Today, Gazprom, Russia's large oil and gas monopoly, exports over 15 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas to Europe.  By contrast, America has either approved or is considering approving LNG export applications for over 8 bcfd, or just over half the exports sent by Russia to Europe.  Moreover, America produces over 70 bcfd, including a recent 25% increase from fracking activities.  With the right policy direction, America can quickly increase its capability to export large quantities of energy when and where necessary.

In direct response to today's crisis with Russia, the White House and Congress should direct the Department of Energy to fast track more LNG export applications and significantly boost US capacity to export its valuable gas resources abroad.  Nobody at home should be under the illusion that America will now permanently sell all of its natural gas to Europe, forever raising the price of gas in the US.  Europeans will ultimately want cheaper gas from Russia delivered via pipeline and Russia will ultimately want to sell its natural gas to the large EU market.  But demonstrating the capability and willingness on the part of America to sell large quantities of gas to allies in Europe for a sustained period of time would do much to limit the gas threats coming from Moscow these days and allow EU and American diplomats more room to maneuver in the Ukrainian crisis, before more blood is shed.  

It also might make Putin and other bullies think twice before playing energy blackmail - or better yet, think twice before bullying in the first place.  That, in the end, is the target - and ultimate triumph - of America's powerful energy weapon.

Monday, October 29, 2012

"Everyone Bought In"

It appears that nobody in baseball really understands them.

Tonight in Detroit, the San Francisco Giants won their second World Series in three years and they did so in improbable fashion.  After losing their dominant closer Brian Wilson to injury this Spring and following the betrayal by their offensive machine in a steroid scandal, they endured.  

When the Dodgers picked up a quarter of a billion dollars in talent at the July trade deadline, the Giants quietly pushed on, eventually leaving the National League West division behind with an eight game advantage.

They stumbled into the division series playoffs losing the first two games to the Cincinnati Reds at their home park in San Francisco.  But as the Giants had done all year long, they gave life and substance to the most popular sports cliches.  They were a team.  They never quit.  They played to the last out.  They believed.

The Giants won the next three games on the road in Cincinnati, propelled by dominant pitching and electrifying at bats, like that from its quiet superstar Buster Posey.  When the likely NL MVP lifted a grand slam into the upper deck of left center field in the deciding game five, it seemed as if anything was possible.

The Giants then moved on to face the defending World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals, falling to an early 3-1 Series deficit and once again facing elimination.

Finding themselves in an improbable game seven, the Giants won their fifth straight elimination game and decisively knocked off the Cardinals beneath the most unlikely of October San Francisco rain.

The momentum continued straight to Detroit, where tonight the Giants completed a fourth straight win over the nationally favored Tigers to earn their second World Series ring in three years.

In many ways, they were the team that nobody else in the country understood, except for the sold out crowds who followed them each and every night.  In the same way that Michael Lewis' Moneyball lifted the curtain on the power of statistics in assembling a baseball team, this year's Giants demonstrated the unbelievable power of selflessness and team in winning a world championship.

Even in the post-game interviews however, the national media seemed bewildered by the Giants.  It was hard to call this a fluke after it was done in such dominant fashion.  But still the questions came.  "What is it about this Giants team?" they asked.  Few understood.

Hunter Pence perhaps explained it best.  "Everyone bought in to it.  We bought in to playing for each other, which you don't see 25 guys (do)."  In an era of big contracts, free agency and in a culture of individual accolades, it is a concept that has somehow become unique in professional sports - and perhaps unique in our own lives.

Each and every night, a new player contributed.  Giants' Manager Bruce Bochy became famous for yanking pitchers only to call in the next arm he knew could get the out.  Players stood aside for others who could do the job.  Two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum pitched out of the bullpen because that was what he was asked to do.  And he rose to the occasion, pitching a commanding 13 innings in five relief appearances in the post season, allowing just three hits and one earned run, while striking out 17.

When General Manager Brian Sabean tried to explain their success after the game seven NL Pennant win in San Francisco, he said they were "better men than they are ball players."  They picked each other up.  They all bought in.

While the Giants speculate about a target on their backs in the coming years after such recent success, one wonders if the competition will fully understand.  The Giants have a motto:  "25 Guys. One Common Goal. Win Today."  They would be wise not to let Michael Lewis write about it.  The longer it remains misunderstood, the more ring fingers they'll need.

***********************

Today was another improbable day for different reasons.  As I've written before, my youngest brother's struggle with leukemia seemed to run together with the Giants' first World Series run.  Today was his 27th birthday and he received the gift of a World Series sweep from the team that lifted all of our hopes during that difficult Fall in 2010.  After being given every reason to doubt his future two years ago, today he thrives with the best health he's had in the eight years since his first cancer diagnosis.

For the first time in many years, his birthday was celebrated with a certain regularity - brunch, family, laughs and presents.  For the first time in many years, his life seems defined not by illness, but by the opportunities that lie ahead.  It's hard to watch another Giants World Series win and not see the commonalities between his path and theirs.  Never quit.  Play to the last out.  Believe.

Perhaps more than the Giants themselves, Johnny epitomizes their secret World Series winning formula that transcends sports:  One Common Goal.  Win Today.

Happy Birthday Johnny.

Saturday, July 21, 2012

Lost In The Wilderness

I was ten and I can vividly remember the afternoon I spent following my Dad around the swimming pool as he scooped out leaves and changed the chlorine, while answering my questions. I had come across his Boy Scout Handbook in the garage and spent the morning pouring through it, reading about knot tying, camping techniques, wilderness survival tips and snake bites. For hours he talked to me about his time in scouting. I was hooked.

When I turned 11, I joined Troop 101 in San Rafael, CA with a few friends I knew from school and many others I didn't. For the next six years, I spent nearly every Monday night attending troop meetings, one weekend a month camping throughout Northern California and one week every summer at Camp Marin Sierra near Lake Tahoe.

In addition to earning my Eagle Scout rank, I spent two weeks backpacking through northern New Mexico at the Boy Scout's treasured Philmont Scout Ranch. We performed hundreds of hours of community service, sang Christmas carols at senior centers, raised money for our own activities, held leadership positions and learned how to respect and enjoy nature. We got in and out of trouble. It was a time I spent memorably with my Dad and my two younger brothers. It was a community of kids I never would have known otherwise through sports or school. Some of my closest friends over the years came from Troop 101. Scouting was a unique outlet and I loved it.

*****

Sadly, the Boy Scouts of America, an organization that meant so much to me and contributed to much of my growth as a young adult, decided recently to continue its absurd policy of excluding homosexual scouts and adult leaders from Scouting. With this decision, they bring shame to an organization otherwise worthy of the public's praise and support.

In attempting to explain their position, the neanderthal executives at the BSA stated that "The committee’s work and conclusion is that this policy reflects the beliefs and perspectives of the BSA’s members, thereby allowing Scouting to remain focused on its mission and the work it is doing to serve more youth." Unfortunately, the decision accomplishes exactly the opposite. In the same way that Sarah Palin became the story (and distraction) that sunk the Presidential ambitions of John McCain, the BSA are allowing themselves to be defined as an organization committed to discrimination, which overshadows everything else the BSA offers American youth.

In 2000, the Supreme Court affirmed the Boy Scouts' right to organize privately with this policy in place. Tellingly, the decision was based in part on the observation by the Court that opposition to homosexuality was an "expressive message" of the BSA - in other words discrimination against gays was part of "its mission". I must have been absent for that Monday night Scout meeting when we all swore an oath to not associate with gay people. I must not have been paying attention when the BSA defined for me what it means to be "morally straight" - the final words of the Boy Scout Oath.

In seeking to move on from the issue that the BSA themselves created, to "remain focused on its mission", the executive leadership in Irving, Texas continue to dishonor their members - both past and present - and all that Scouting should represent for every kid in America. For me, Scouting's "expressive message" was many things, none of which related to one's sexuality.

The BSA's conservative apologists cling to the tired notion that the BSA need to protect children from sexual abuse. That defense is not only insulting to homosexuals - suggesting that all gay men are somehow predisposed to sexually abusing children - it is woefully ignorant of the myriad of sexual abuse scandals that have centered around seemingly heterosexual adults (from Jerry Sandusky to the Catholic Church). For those understandably worried about the safety of their sons, they should insist that the BSA focus its energies on preventing any adult - gay or straight - from being in a situation alone with a child, a policy that protects both children from abuse and adults from frivolous accusations.

For conservatives who believe that opposition to homosexuality is just part of the fabric of their own political platform, they ought to wake up from their slumber and look at a calendar. In 2010, one of conservative's legal champions and the attorney most credited with sweeping George W. Bush into office penned The Conservative Case For Gay Marriage. Theodore Olson, the former Solicitor General of the United States, then went on to successfully remind California voters and the 9th Circuit Court that discrimination by any means - even by a simple majority vote in the form of Prop 8 - is still discrimination and illegal. Imagine that.

*****

Perhaps the executives in Irving should spend more time with actual scouts and scout leaders and less time leading two-year studies that only reaffirm the smallness of their characters and the fear inherent in their politics. What they might realize is that thirteen year-old Scouts are focused on merit badges, learning CPR and First Aid, and how to properly rescue a drowning swimmer - a skill that came in handy for me one summer (and handier for the drowning seven year-old boy). They will find fathers dedicated to teaching kids about leadership and citizenship and enjoying time spent with their children. If they get out of Irving, they will find real values that ought to inspire them.

But what they won't find in Troops across the country is a gay witch hunt.

It's time that the BSA finally live up to its member's "expressive message" and get "focused on its mission" - our mission. Continue to be the place that kids of all backgrounds can feel comfortable, grow into productive citizens and come into their own - whatever that may be.

And for goodness sake, don't make me think twice when my own sons find my Boy Scout Handbook and ask me when they can join. The scouting experience is too important to their future.

- Ted Kniesche
Troop 101, Eagle Scout, 1996

Sunday, May 27, 2012

The Desert in the Oasis

The sun had dipped into the desert several hours before.  But for our own headlights and occasional westbound traffic, we continued on in the darkness.  Highway 10 seemed to continue indefinitely through an expanse of nothing.

It was early March and we were on our way to watch spring training baseball for a long weekend.  My three-year-old son had been talking about it since his December birthday – a result of him witnessing his first World Series win before he turned two.  Winning was fun.  As the miles continued we sometimes wondered to each other about the merits of driving versus flying.  Despite everyone’s advice to the contrary, the thought of dragging a double-stroller, six suitcases, diaper bags, car seats, Curious George and two little kids through an airport two hours before a flight reminded us of the wisdom of our decision. 

Smiling, yet exhausted, we laughed about how two kids that weighed a combined 45 pounds could make a 13-hour drive over two days more attractive than a two and a half hour direct flight to Phoenix.  How times had changed.

As the drive wore on, red brake lights and flashing caution signs interrupted the darkness.  All vehicles were advised of a checkpoint ahead.

With little attention paid to our general location, we guessed it was some sort of DUI checkpoint – in the middle of the desert.

As the speed limit quickly descended from 70 mph to 25 mph, we neared what we soon realized was the Arizona / California border crossing.  Floodlights lit up the horizon and dozens of flashing immigration vehicle lights surrounded the border.  Our car slowed to a single-file line as we approached a crowd of several dozen police officers and immigration officials.

“Welcome to Arizona,” I muttered.

The politics around immigration had certainly been building for years.  Efforts in 2008 to work a compromise through Congress that would have recognized the status of undocumented immigrants and provided a path towards citizenship for millions of people in the U.S. had failed.  As the political landscape changed with the rise of Tea Party politics in 2010 and a massive U.S. recession continued to linger, the immigration debate had become part of an ugly political atmosphere.  Arizona made itself ground zero for that debate.

In the middle of the night in the desert, Arizona’s argument lit up the barren rocky landscape.  Each vehicle was stopped and questioned.  Trucks were automatically diverted to a separate line and inspected.  We wondered if we were entering Arizona from California or returning to the U.S. from Mexico.  Our conversation ceased and we turned off the satellite radio.

Of course, our anxiety was almost as naïve as our original surprise.  As we approached the officers with our windows rolled down and squinted at their flashlights, ready to answer their questions, their hardened expressions shifted to soft smiles and we were waived on through without hesitation.  My two blonde-haired kids remained asleep in the back of the car as we continued past the officers, our car never coming to a complete stop.  To our right, a Latino family had been pulled over and was being searched and questioned.  Other vehicles we couldn’t make out had been stopped and were swarmed with officials.  Police dogs circled every vehicle.

I suddenly wondered if Governor Brewer had been through this checkpoint in the middle of the night.

As quickly as they arrived, the lights faded and we were once again driving alone in the dark, the white road markers flying by us in rapid succession.

We drove on in silence.

During the miles ahead, we wondered if it was better that our kids had slept through that experience.  It was nearly midnight.  Perhaps they were too young to understand.

The lights had now completely disappeared behind us.  The sky was once again blanketed with stars and we continued on in silence. Our kids, who were perhaps too young to understand, slept quietly in the back of the car.  Their parents, who were old enough to understand, agreed that they didn’t.

And without answers we continued driving towards that horizon we never seem able to reach.

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

76 Reasons to Engage Our Kids

If you thought that $4.00 gas prices were crippling the American family this summer, think again.  A new service offered by your local 76 station, called the "Why Stopper", proudly enables parents to avoid those pesky questions from their six year old in the back seat by handing them a cell phone that answers their curiosity for them.  Forget the debt ceiling debate folks - Americans have officially hit a new low.

The 76 station commercial is so unbelievable, it took me a second to realize I was not watching the lead-in for tonight's Jimmy Kimmel Live or the next classic skit from The Lonely Island comedians.  

The scene opens in a car with two parents in the front seat trying to drive and follow directions, while their son repeatedly asks questions such as "why is the sky blue", "why do birds fly" and so on.  The narrator immediately cuts in and declares "This is a problem.  But now there's the Why Stopper from your friends at 76.  Our knowledge retrieval professionals have recorded the answer to almost any child's question. . . so you can drive in peace."  And finally, 76 boasts, "We're not just top-tier gas, we're on the driver's side."  Hallelujah!

(If this doesn't feel wrong to you, then read no further, you'll waste your time.)

It's easy to leave this advertisement at the doorstep of 76 - a retail gas station owned by the oil company ConocoPhillips.  There they go again.  In addition to hiking up gas prices, polluting the air and raising the sea level with global warming, Big Oil is going after the American family.  But not so fast.  76 is a large, sophisticated company that undoubtedly selected this commercial from one of several advertising agency proposals who know viewers better than viewers know themselves.  

So my question is simple:  What does it say about parents - the target audience for this commercial - that a multi-million dollar advertising agency and a billion dollar oil company believe that a service designed to ignore your kids is likely to sell more gasoline?

In many ways, it shouldn't be surprising that someone came up with a service that allows a cell phone to answer our kid's questions.  Rear-seat DVD players are standard options in most cars today.  I've lost count of how many times I've seen kids at the restaurant table next to us playing video games on an iPad or their own cell phone while their parents silently eat breakfast.  When we take our kids to the park, it's notable how many parents sit on the picnic tables talking on their cell phones while their kids play by themselves.  The cell phone encyclopedia seems to follow the trend.

It is easy to point fingers when it comes to uncomfortable trends about our kids.  Just this morning, NPR's The California Report discussed the stresses faced by kids with "too much homework".  Naturally parents are blaming education, demanding that schools reduce homework loads so that kids have more time for other activities.

I'm not an education expert and I won't pretend to know how much homework is too much.  But the 76 commercial makes you wonder what's really behind the homework uproar.  Especially in the lower grades, homework isn't just work for the kids - it requires parent involvement too.  Parents should be as much a part of their child's education as the teacher, helping kids study multiplication tables, review flash cards, comment on essays, and discuss history topics, current events or a new novel.  But when parents today are buying cell phone services that answer questions for their kids, is homework stress more a reflection of parent's stress with their kids?

Incredibly, a recent study in partnership with Stanford University says that kids age 8-18 spend over 7 hours per day using entertainment media, or 53 hours per week.  That's longer than the average American adults spends doing their day job.  Kids have so much leeway to play video games and watch television, parenting is no longer a contact sport.  With parents willing to outsource their kids' education to teachers (or a 76 Station cell phone answering service), it's no wonder homework is under fire and being flanked from both parents and kids alike.

For full disclosure, I have only been a parent for two and a half years and the fact that my son's favorite word these days is "no" means that I don't spend my time with him answering his questions.  Rather, our days are spent tracking his every move around the house, asking him if he wants to go potty or if his underpants are still dry.  My wife and I are also guilty, from time to time, of putting him in front of Curious George or Mickey Mouse Clubhouse when we're trying to get dinner ready, care for our six month old or just have quiet time of our own - even if for ten minutes.  But for a kid who has more energy than a nuclear power plant, we convince ourselves daily that this doesn't make us bad parents.

Nevertheless, as much as I look forward to Little League and soccer practice, I eagerly await my kids' curiosity and I hope to have a front-row seat for their intellectual growth and understanding.  I look forward to the day when they can make an argument for why I'm wrong.  And it's our job as parents to prepare them for that day and give them the tools they need to think on their own and challenge the norms around them. This is what makes them good people and productive citizens.

In the time I've spent being a parent and observing my own and others, I've realized that parenting is many things if not difficult, challenging, hard and tiring.  But in no way is it - or should it be - a chore.  We cannot have the same reaction to reading our kids stories, commenting on their English paper, or simply answering their questions as we do to our boss who says he needs those reports over the weekend.  Because if that's the case, if that's the world in which we choose to raise our kids, then lookout.  This will be one deficit we'll never repay.

Thursday, May 19, 2011

Ten Years On - It's Time to Win

As the Afghan War surpasses its first decade, it is imperative that we require more from our political leadership - and more from ourselves - so as to mitigate another decade of conflict.  Over six thousand service members have died since September 11, 2001, including tens of thousands wounded.  We are still deeply involved in Iraq following the aftermath of that invasion and we're overtly and covertly engaged in conflicts throughout the Middle East and Northern Africa.  This has the look of a world war - only longer.

Ten years after the devastating attacks on September 11th, we have killed Bin Laden and prevented a major attack on U.S. soil, but we have yet to muster the political will to win this global conflict.  Not the will to send more kids overseas to fight an ongoing war, but the will back home to win.

While teenage and 20-something Marines patrol remote villages in Afghanistan, while Raymond Davis and dozens more CIA officers like him hunt terrorist networks across Central Asia at great personal risk, the American public, media and political class fret over Donald Trump's claims that the President doesn't have a valid birth certificate.

It is not good enough for us to rely on the overwhelmingly disproportionate sacrifices from the all-volunteer military and intelligence communities and their families who bear the brunt of this war.  Our reliance on military "surges" as our only policy tool deepens their sacrifice - without end.

It's unconscionable to me that a ten year global war still rages and we have yet to mobilize our country to win it.  From the uneasy days after 9/11 to today, Americans are urged by their leaders and encouraged by each other to go about their business.  It started when President Bush famously told people to keep shopping after 9/11 and it continues today with the public's obsession over who will be on the ticket a year from now to challenge President Obama.

But what of the ten year war?

History can be instructive.  Below is an excerpt from an interview on the NPR program Fresh Air with Lester Brown, Founder of the World Watch Institute.  It's worth reading in its entirety, which is why I pasted it below.  It tells a story of how the political leadership responded to a seemingly insurmountable challenge and rapidly mobilized a nation to win.

President Roosevelt didn't exactly ask Americans to just keep shopping.


"Sometimes you're asked if you're an optimist or a pessimist, and someone answered that question recently and said it's too late to be a pessimist. And I think that sums it up well. But one of the things I do is go back and look at the economic history of World War II, and realize that we totally restructured the U.S. industrial economy almost overnight.
The attack on Pearl Harbor came on December 7th, 1941. It was extraordinarily successful in military terms, sinking, you know, sinking a large part of the U.S. Pacific fleet that happened to be at anchor there.
But then a month later, January 6th, 1942, President Roosevelt gave his State of the Union address in which he laid out arms production goals. He said we're going to produce 45,000 tanks, 60,000 planes, thousands of ships. And people just couldn't relate to that because we were still in a Depression mode economy at the time.
But what Roosevelt and his colleagues knew was that the largest concentration of industrial power in the world at the time was in the U.S. automobile industry. So after his State of the Union address, he called in the leaders of the industry and said because you guys represent such a large share of our industrial capacity, we are going to rely heavily on you to help us reach these arms production goals.
And they said well Mr. President, we're going to do whatever we can. But it's going to be a stretch producing cars and all these arms too. He said you don't understand. We're going to ban the sale of automobiles in the United States. And that's exactly what we did. And we'd been producing three million a year even during the Depression.
We banned the sale of automobiles. So from early 1942 until the end of 1944, there were essentially no cars produced in the United States and we exceeded every one of those arms production goals. In the end, we didn't produce 60,000 planes, we produced 229,000 planes.
I mean, even today, it's difficult to visualize how we could do that. But the encouraging thing is that we did that and it didn't take decades to restructure the U.S. industrial economy, it didn't take years. We did it in a matter of months. And if we did that then, then certainly we can restructure the energy economy much more rapidly than most people think and thus, be able to stabilize climate before it spirals out of control."
While voters and the media debate which clown should be on the ticket in 2012 to challenge President Obama, I would like to first know who is going to marshal US policy through the prism of winning this war.

Where is a comprehensive energy policy that truly mitigates the use of oil, one of the central political and economic destabilizing factors in our current war.  Countless energy targets have been called for in speech after speech, with little result.

Similarly, good economic policies strengthen the American economy and provide it flexibility to support transformative events like the so-called "Arab Spring", which could be the single most important long-term victory in our war against radical Islam - if it can be sustained.  To strengthen democratization efforts, we need to offer aid packages, infrastructure development, political and civil society support and economic trade packages.  That's how we bring the troops home.

The U.S. was attacked on December 7, 1941 and Roosevelt wanted 60,000 planes to fight back.  He got 229,000 of them.  Where are our planes?

He or she who can mobilize that kind of success - whether or not they have a verifiable birth certificate - gets my vote.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Endless October

It was almost unbearable to watch.

It felt as if we'd been there before.  So much anticipation, so much hope riding on the next swing of the bat.  For countless Spring seasons, we've predicted that (or wondered if) this might actually be our year, knowing deep down that we always end up short.  Silly rabbit, World Series rings are for Yankees.  Supporting a team in a city that has never brought a World Series championship home to its fog-loving faithful takes its toll.

When would we ever see a parade down Market Street?

With the game tied 5-5 in the bottom of the ninth, the San Francisco Giants had lost the momentum against a formidable Phillies team after an early lead.  I sat in my seat holding my hat in my hands, replaying the images of past seasons that never were.  

There was 1989, when the Giants seemed to have everything going for them coming off a powerful NLCS win over the Chicago Cubs, only to have their momentum crushed by the forces of nature as a 7.0 earthquake derailed the Giants and any chance of avoiding a sweep by their cross-town rivals.  (Yes, I'm blaming it on the earthquake)

There was 1993, when the Giants had two 20-game winning pitchers, a mean closer and a star-studded lineup who racked up 103 wins during the regular season.  If the Atlanta Braves weren't in the NL Western Division or if there was a Wild Card at the time, it might have been the Giants' year.  But the season came down to that final Sunday, with the Braves winning and the Giants losing.  No playoffs.

Then there was the 2000 series against the Mets, where late inning heroics by J.T. Snow were countered by New York's Benny Agbayani in a 13th inning walk off home run to take a 2-1 series lead.  The Giants never recovered.

And of course, the horror of 2002 when the Giants were eight outs away in game six from winning the World Series and shutting up the Anaheim rally monkey, only to orchestrate one of the biggest meltdowns in World Series history that led to the Angles taking the crown in game 7.

But tonight, Aubrey Huff stepped to the plate.  Huff, a long-time veteran and accomplished ball player, had never been to the playoffs before this year.  He was due.  He had to be due.  Here's your chance, I thought to myself.  I dipped my head in my hands, afraid that I'd seen this movie before.

But for one big reason, this year was different.  

My youngest brother, who has been battling cancer for the last six years, relapsed on September 1st with an aggressive form of leukemia.  The relapse was his third since he was diagnosed shortly after his nineteenth birthday, just one semester into his tenure at the University of Michigan.  Fighting cancer, especially a blood cancer that returns time and again, is an experience nobody can begin to explain or appreciate unless you go through it yourself - whether personally or with a close relative.  It is a brutal and frightening world all its own.

His fight against leukemia has sapped much of his strength.  Even during periods of remission he was sick.  His side effects went way beyond reactions to chemotherapy.  The combination of a weakened immune system and years of medication have taken its toll.  You name it, he's probably had it.

His latest relapse couldn't be more serious and he is truly in a fight for his life.

And yet, through it all, his one sanctuary seems to be sitting in the stands and following what he clearly feels is his favorite Giants team yet.  I couldn't agree more.  It's no wonder he has taken to this team - a combination of young stars and veterans all scrapping and fighting with every ounce of their beings to contribute as the collective underdogs that they are.  

The 2010 Giants are so different from the teams of year's past.  There is no dominating star like those during the years with Barry Bonds or Will Clark.  In fact, two of the teams highest salaried players get very little playing time - one, Barry Zito, didn't even make the playoff roster.  

Rather, you learn to expect the unexpected from the unlikeliest of corners.  Cody Ross, who the Giants pulled off the waiver wire just over a month ago, hasn't stopped hitting home runs and driving runners in.  A rookie catcher named Buster Posey commands the league's best pitching staff and hits like a 10-year veteran.  An off-the-wall closing pitcher named Brian Wilson is as good for his post game quotes and interviews as he is for striking batters out in the ninth inning with sheer hatred and intensity.  These guys play hard and earn every win they get.

What I like most about them is that in April of this year, nobody (maybe not even themselves) would have picked them to win the NLCS or especially the World Series.  Even tonight as they're on the brink of knocking off the two time NL Champions, they probably don't get that much respect around the country.

While my brother received his news in early September and his health worsened with successive treatments, the Giants seemed to rise to the occasion.  Their record in September was 18-8 and their pitching staff threw a near-record 1.78 ERA since he got sick again.  We traveled with him to Colorado to see the Giants steal 2 crucial games from the Rockies before coming home to San Francisco to ultimately clinch the NL West title against San Diego.  He attended every home game.  The last part of September was almost a playoff atmosphere as the team nobody thought could win was winning and contending for a real playoff spot.  He traveled recently to Philadelphia, describing with joy the silence of Philadelphia fans after Ross homered in game 1 to take a crucial 1-0 series lead.

My brother's happiness seems to track their success and for that reason above all others I hope for one win after another.

So with first baseman Huff at bat, it seemed as if so much more was at stake.  Do it for him, I thought.

With one out, Huff lined a single off the first pitch he saw and was followed by a screaming single from rookie sensation Buster Posey, in a memorable night for the young catcher.

With one out, runners at the corners and Uribe at bat, the win was in our sites.  But so was the double-play ball, a scenario I couldn't help but fear, remembering all of the years growing up and watching opportunities slip by and seasons come up short.

Of course, Uribe popped a sacrifice fly to left field, deep enough to score Huff for an electrifying win.  A sac fly deep enough to keep us all going, to keep us all believing that good things do come to those who suffer.

As I stood there watching thousands of fans chant "U-uribe, U-uribe" in Willie Mays Plaza, I couldn't help but smile, hoping they could keep this October season going and show us all how the improbable can always be possible.  

Whether or not we end up with a parade on Market Street, I have no idea.  I've followed the Giants long enough to know that the final chapter is nowhere near written.  But as we turned to leave for home, I heard my brother say "I started thinking about a Market Street parade today."  And tonight, that's good enough for me.