Washington's New Launch Code

Call it a lack of self awareness, too much talk of American decline, or the urgency to respond to the crisis in Ukraine during a twenty four hour news cycle.  But the expected White House responses - stern speeches, targeted financial sanctions, diplomatic snubbing and cessation of military ties - seem typical of an America (rightly) unwilling to discuss a war, but unsure of what else to do.

Incredibly, American policymakers seem unsure or unaware of the most important non-lethal weapon at their disposal - the energy weapon.  

For more than three decades, America has been outmaneuvered by its own energy deficit and drawn into a myriad of difficult and bloody conflicts, many of which were about access to energy.  It has seen its defense budgets balloon and thousands of its kids lost to overseas wars.  The energy weapon was effectively used against America by energy rich nations and symbolized American dependence on foreign sources of energy.  Ultimately it gave a voice and power to international players, that without energy of their own, wouldn't have been players at all.

Late last year, while thousands of Ukrainians were braving the bitter winter in Kiev to protest a corrupt government and calling for the right to direct the future of their country, the US reached an important milestone as it passed Saudi Arabia as the world's top oil producing country.  These two paths - a desire for Ukrainian self determination and America's status as a world oil major - should not have been distant ships passing in the night.

Say what you want, good or bad, about America's newfound oil and natural gas resources, their extraction methods, interstate delivery pipelines and the like.  Much will be done in the years to come to more safely extract these resources from the ground.  But the reality is, America will keep drilling and fracking oil and natural gas and it is likely to continue to be a major global energy producer for decades to come.  

In the world of diplomacy and protecting US interests abroad, someone ought to call the White House and tell them they have a winning lottery ticket in between the seats of their car and they forgot to cash it in.

If used prudently and responsibly, America's energy wealth should help better maintain international security.  We see it on a macro level, where Western sanctions banning Iranian oil did little to roil oil markets last year and in part allowed negotiations to proceed on a nuclear deal.  Since the Japanese Tsunami and the devastation to their nuclear power sector, we'll see more American energy exports to Japan, an important US ally.

But the real opportunity lies in America's ability to use its energy resources to support fledgling democracies and advance the spread of freedom and self-governance around the world.  

For decades (as today), cheap oil and gas exports from Russia hung over Europe as the ultimate carrot and stick.  During quiet times, Russia expanded its oil and gas export infrastructure to Europe through a permanent web of interdependence.  But after invading Crimea and with the EU threatening sanctions, gas markets are nervous that an angry Russia will indefinitely cut off supplies to a major regional economy.

America has the opportunity and ability to strategically expand its oil and gas exports so that allies are less dependent on where their gas comes from and more stoic in pursuit of their own interests - whether through meaningful sanctions against Russia from the EU or citizens taking a stand in Ukraine against geopolitical bullying.

Today, Gazprom, Russia's large oil and gas monopoly, exports over 15 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas to Europe.  By contrast, America has either approved or is considering approving LNG export applications for over 8 bcfd, or just over half the exports sent by Russia to Europe.  Moreover, America produces over 70 bcfd, including a recent 25% increase from fracking activities.  With the right policy direction, America can quickly increase its capability to export large quantities of energy when and where necessary.

In direct response to today's crisis with Russia, the White House and Congress should direct the Department of Energy to fast track more LNG export applications and significantly boost US capacity to export its valuable gas resources abroad.  Nobody at home should be under the illusion that America will now permanently sell all of its natural gas to Europe, forever raising the price of gas in the US.  Europeans will ultimately want cheaper gas from Russia delivered via pipeline and Russia will ultimately want to sell its natural gas to the large EU market.  But demonstrating the capability and willingness on the part of America to sell large quantities of gas to allies in Europe for a sustained period of time would do much to limit the gas threats coming from Moscow these days and allow EU and American diplomats more room to maneuver in the Ukrainian crisis, before more blood is shed.  

It also might make Putin and other bullies think twice before playing energy blackmail - or better yet, think twice before bullying in the first place.  That, in the end, is the target - and ultimate triumph - of America's powerful energy weapon.